This article summarizes a few Warren Buffett books that are good reads. These are just a few out on the web written about the great stock market investor and trader. 'The Warren Buffett Way' is about some of the methodologies and techniques that he uses to make investments decisions in stocks and preferred stocks. This book is fairly technical and some concepts can be hard to understand. It goes into cash flow, valuations analysis and the uses of leverage and debt to name a few.
'The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life,' is a biography about Warren Buffett that details his life through 2009. The book is rather extension and comprehensive and not as technical as the Warren Buffett way.
'Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist' is another great biography about Warren Buffett that details and follows Buffett's life, investments and business dealings. It is was written earlier than 'The Snowball' and is a similar read to that book. It is a complete book about Buffett's life and business dealings through 1995 and well worth the time for a summer read.
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Saturday, June 24, 2017
Much has been said about the country of India's economy. During the last quarter, the Indian economy checked in with an impressive 6.1% growth rate. The pundits argue that the economy is slowing. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects an explosive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 7.2% in 2018, and 7.7% in 2019; this compares to a dismal 1.9% growth rate for the United States GDP during the Socialist's Obama administration.
Though inequality and the caste system prevail in the economy, the growth prospects are impressive; three to four times that of the United States economy! So is India now the land of opportunity? Will the incredible growth rates continue? Will India be a good place to invest
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Warren Buffett Article (source: Forbes)
Below is an article written by Warren Buffett, probably the most successful stock market investor ever:
Warren Buffett 11/09/2008 @ 6:00PM
Warren Buffett 11/09/2008 @ 6:00PM
You Pay A Very High Price In The Stock Market For A Cheery Consensus
Pension-fund managers continue to make investment decisions with their eyes firmly fixed on the rearview mirror. This generals-fighting-the-last-war approach has proven costly in the past and will likely prove equally costly this time around.
Stocks now sell at levels that should produce long-term returns far superior to bonds. Yet pensions managers, usually encouraged by corporate sponsors they must necessarily please (“whose bread I eat, his song I sing”), are pouring funds in record proportions into bonds.
Meanwhile, orders for stocks are being placed with an eyedropper. Parkinson–of Parkinson’s law fame–might conclude that the enthusiasm of professionals for stocks varies proportionately with the recent pleasure derived from ownership. This always was the way John Q. Public was expected to behave. John Q. Expert seems similarly afflicted. Here’s the record.
In 1972, when the Dow earned $67.11, or 11% on beginning book value of 607, it closed the year selling at 1,020, and pension managers couldn’t buy stocks fast enough. Purchases of equities in 1972 were 105% of net funds available (i.e., bonds were sold), a record except for the 122% of the even more buoyant prior year. This two-year stampede increased the equity portion of total pension assets from 61% to 74%–an all-time record that coincided nicely with a record-high price for the Dow. The more investment managers paid for stocks, the better they felt about them.
And then the market went into a tailspin in 1973-74. Although the Dow earned $99.04 in 1974, or 14% on beginning book value of 690, it finished the year selling at 616. A bargain? Alas, such bargain prices produced panic rather than purchases; only 21% of net investable funds went into equities that year, a 25-year record low. The proportion of equities held by private noninsured pension plans fell to 54% of net assets, a full 20-point drop from the level deemed appropriate when the Dow was 400 points higher.
By 1976, the courage of pension managers rose in tandem with the price level, and 56% of available funds was committed to stocks. The Dow that year averaged close to 1,000, a level then about 25% above book value.
In 1978, stocks were valued far more reasonably, with the Dow selling below book value most of the time. Yet a new low of 9% of net funds was invested in equities during the year. The first quarter of 1979 continued at very close to the same level.
By these actions, pension managers, in record-setting manner, are voting for purchase of bonds–at interest rates of 9% to 10%–and against purchase of American equities at prices aggregating book value or less. But these same pension managers probably would concede that those American equities, in aggregate and over the longer term, would earn about 13% (the average in recent years) on book value. And, overwhelmingly, the managers of their corporate sponsors would agree.
Many corporate managers, in fact, exhibit a bit of schizophrenia regarding equities. They consider their own stocks to be screamingly attractive. But, concomitantly, they stamp approval on pension policies rejecting purchases of common stocks in general. And the boss, while wearing his acquisition hat, will eagerly bid 150% to 200% of book value for businesses typical of corporate America but, wearing his pension hat, will scorn investment in similar companies at book value. Can his own talents be so unique that he is justified both in paying 200 cents on the dollar for a business if he can get his hands on it, and in rejecting it as an unwise pension investment at 100 cents on the dollar if it must be left to be run by his companions at the Business Roundtable?
A simple Pavlovian response may be the major cause of this puzzling behavior. During the last decade, stocks have produced pain–both for corporate sponsors and for the investment managers the sponsors hire. Neither group wishes to return to the scene of the accident. But the pain has not been produced because business has performed badly, but rather because stocks have underperformed business. Such underperformance cannot prevail indefinitely, any more than could the earlier overperformance of stocks versus business that lured pension money into equities at high prices.
Can better results be obtained over, say, 20 years from a group of 9 1/2% bonds of leading American companies maturing in 1999 than from a group of Dow-type equities purchased, in aggregate, at around book value and likely to earn, in aggregate, around 13% on that book value? The probabilities seem exceptionally low. The choice of equities would prove inferior only if either a major sustained decline in return on equity occurs or a ludicrously low valuation of earnings prevails at the end of the 20-year period. Should price/earnings ratios expand over the 20-year period–and that 13% return on equity be averaged–purchases made now at book value will result in better than a 13% annual return. How can bonds at only 9 1/2% be a better buy?
Think for a moment of book value of the Dow as equivalent to par, or the principal value of a bond. And think of the 13% or so expectable average rate of earnings on that book value as a sort of fluctuating coupon on the bond–a portion of which is retained to add to principal amount just like the interest return on U.S. Savings Bonds. Currently our “Dow Bond” can be purchased at a significant discount (at about 840 vs. 940 “principal amount,” or book value of the Dow. Figures are based on the old Dow, prior to the recent substitutions. The returns would be moderately higher and the book values somewhat lower if the new Dow had been used.). That Dow Bond purchased at a discount with an average coupon of 13%–even though the coupon will fluctuate with business conditions–seems to me to be a long-term investment far superior to a conventional 9 1/2% 20-year bond purchased at par.
Of course, there is no guarantee that future corporate earnings will average 13%. It may be that some pension managers shun stocks because they expect reported returns on equity to fall sharply in the next decade. However, I don’t believe such a view is widespread.
Instead, investment managers usually set forth two major objections to the thought that stocks should now be favored over bonds. Some say earnings currently are overstated, with real earnings after replacement-value depreciation far less than those reported. Thus, they say, real 13% earnings aren’t available. But that argument ignores the evidence in such investment areas as life insurance, banking, fire-casualty insurance, finance companies, service businesses, etc.
In those industries, replacement-value accounting would produce results virtually identical with those produced by conventional accounting. And yet, one can put together a very attractive package of large companies in those fields with an expectable return of 13% or better on book value and with a price which, in aggregate, approximates book value. Furthermore, I see no evidence that corporate managers turn their backs on 13% returns in their acquisition decisions because of replacement-value accounting considerations.
A second argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn’t it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: “Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear; you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.
If anyone can afford to have such a long-term perspective in making investment decisions, it should be pension-fund managers. While corporate managers frequently incur large obligations in order to acquire businesses at premium prices, most pension plans have very minor flow-of-funds problems. If they wish to invest for the long term–as they do in buying those 20- and 30-year bonds they now embrace–they certainly are in a position to do so. They can, and should, buy stocks with the attitude and expectations of an investor entering into a long-term partnership.
Corporate managers who duck responsibility for pension management by making easy, conventional or faddish decisions are making an expensive mistake. Pension assets probably total about one-third of overall industrial net worth and, of course, bulk far larger in the case of many specific industrial corporations. Thus, poor management of those assets frequently equates to poor management of the largest single segment of the business. Soundly achieved higher returns will produce significantly greater earnings for the corporate sponsors and will also enhance the security and prospective payments available to pensioners.
Managers currently opting for lower equity ratios either have a highly negative opinion of future American business results or expect to be nimble enough to dance back into stocks at even lower levels. There may well be some period in the near future when financial markets are demoralized and much better buys are available in equities; that possibility exists at all times. But you can be sure that at such a time the future will seem neither predictable nor pleasant. Those now awaiting a “better time” for equity investing are highly likely to maintain that posture until well into the next bull market.
Editor’s Note: This editor’s note accompanied the original publication of this article:
Warren Buffett is a down-to-earth man of 48 who prefers to operate out of his native Omaha rather than in the canyons of Wall Street, but the pros regard him as possibly the most successful living money manager, a direct descendant of the legendary Ben Graham under whom he studied. Buffett made a fortune for himself and his clients in the Fifties and Sixties but threw in the towel in 1969 because he could no longer find bargains. Then in late 1974, when the Dow Jones industrials were below 600 and the air was thick with doom, he told Forbes: “I feel like an oversexed man in a harem. This is the time to start investing.” Within months, the greatest rally in history began, with the DJI running almost 450 points in a bit over a year. What does Buffett think now? In this article, he puts it bluntly: Now is the time to buy.
Stocks now sell at levels that should produce long-term returns far superior to bonds. Yet pensions managers, usually encouraged by corporate sponsors they must necessarily please (“whose bread I eat, his song I sing”), are pouring funds in record proportions into bonds.
Meanwhile, orders for stocks are being placed with an eyedropper. Parkinson–of Parkinson’s law fame–might conclude that the enthusiasm of professionals for stocks varies proportionately with the recent pleasure derived from ownership. This always was the way John Q. Public was expected to behave. John Q. Expert seems similarly afflicted. Here’s the record.
In 1972, when the Dow earned $67.11, or 11% on beginning book value of 607, it closed the year selling at 1,020, and pension managers couldn’t buy stocks fast enough. Purchases of equities in 1972 were 105% of net funds available (i.e., bonds were sold), a record except for the 122% of the even more buoyant prior year. This two-year stampede increased the equity portion of total pension assets from 61% to 74%–an all-time record that coincided nicely with a record-high price for the Dow. The more investment managers paid for stocks, the better they felt about them.
And then the market went into a tailspin in 1973-74. Although the Dow earned $99.04 in 1974, or 14% on beginning book value of 690, it finished the year selling at 616. A bargain? Alas, such bargain prices produced panic rather than purchases; only 21% of net investable funds went into equities that year, a 25-year record low. The proportion of equities held by private noninsured pension plans fell to 54% of net assets, a full 20-point drop from the level deemed appropriate when the Dow was 400 points higher.
By 1976, the courage of pension managers rose in tandem with the price level, and 56% of available funds was committed to stocks. The Dow that year averaged close to 1,000, a level then about 25% above book value.
In 1978, stocks were valued far more reasonably, with the Dow selling below book value most of the time. Yet a new low of 9% of net funds was invested in equities during the year. The first quarter of 1979 continued at very close to the same level.
By these actions, pension managers, in record-setting manner, are voting for purchase of bonds–at interest rates of 9% to 10%–and against purchase of American equities at prices aggregating book value or less. But these same pension managers probably would concede that those American equities, in aggregate and over the longer term, would earn about 13% (the average in recent years) on book value. And, overwhelmingly, the managers of their corporate sponsors would agree.
Many corporate managers, in fact, exhibit a bit of schizophrenia regarding equities. They consider their own stocks to be screamingly attractive. But, concomitantly, they stamp approval on pension policies rejecting purchases of common stocks in general. And the boss, while wearing his acquisition hat, will eagerly bid 150% to 200% of book value for businesses typical of corporate America but, wearing his pension hat, will scorn investment in similar companies at book value. Can his own talents be so unique that he is justified both in paying 200 cents on the dollar for a business if he can get his hands on it, and in rejecting it as an unwise pension investment at 100 cents on the dollar if it must be left to be run by his companions at the Business Roundtable?
A simple Pavlovian response may be the major cause of this puzzling behavior. During the last decade, stocks have produced pain–both for corporate sponsors and for the investment managers the sponsors hire. Neither group wishes to return to the scene of the accident. But the pain has not been produced because business has performed badly, but rather because stocks have underperformed business. Such underperformance cannot prevail indefinitely, any more than could the earlier overperformance of stocks versus business that lured pension money into equities at high prices.
Can better results be obtained over, say, 20 years from a group of 9 1/2% bonds of leading American companies maturing in 1999 than from a group of Dow-type equities purchased, in aggregate, at around book value and likely to earn, in aggregate, around 13% on that book value? The probabilities seem exceptionally low. The choice of equities would prove inferior only if either a major sustained decline in return on equity occurs or a ludicrously low valuation of earnings prevails at the end of the 20-year period. Should price/earnings ratios expand over the 20-year period–and that 13% return on equity be averaged–purchases made now at book value will result in better than a 13% annual return. How can bonds at only 9 1/2% be a better buy?
Think for a moment of book value of the Dow as equivalent to par, or the principal value of a bond. And think of the 13% or so expectable average rate of earnings on that book value as a sort of fluctuating coupon on the bond–a portion of which is retained to add to principal amount just like the interest return on U.S. Savings Bonds. Currently our “Dow Bond” can be purchased at a significant discount (at about 840 vs. 940 “principal amount,” or book value of the Dow. Figures are based on the old Dow, prior to the recent substitutions. The returns would be moderately higher and the book values somewhat lower if the new Dow had been used.). That Dow Bond purchased at a discount with an average coupon of 13%–even though the coupon will fluctuate with business conditions–seems to me to be a long-term investment far superior to a conventional 9 1/2% 20-year bond purchased at par.
Of course, there is no guarantee that future corporate earnings will average 13%. It may be that some pension managers shun stocks because they expect reported returns on equity to fall sharply in the next decade. However, I don’t believe such a view is widespread.
Instead, investment managers usually set forth two major objections to the thought that stocks should now be favored over bonds. Some say earnings currently are overstated, with real earnings after replacement-value depreciation far less than those reported. Thus, they say, real 13% earnings aren’t available. But that argument ignores the evidence in such investment areas as life insurance, banking, fire-casualty insurance, finance companies, service businesses, etc.
In those industries, replacement-value accounting would produce results virtually identical with those produced by conventional accounting. And yet, one can put together a very attractive package of large companies in those fields with an expectable return of 13% or better on book value and with a price which, in aggregate, approximates book value. Furthermore, I see no evidence that corporate managers turn their backs on 13% returns in their acquisition decisions because of replacement-value accounting considerations.
A second argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn’t it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: “Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear; you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.
If anyone can afford to have such a long-term perspective in making investment decisions, it should be pension-fund managers. While corporate managers frequently incur large obligations in order to acquire businesses at premium prices, most pension plans have very minor flow-of-funds problems. If they wish to invest for the long term–as they do in buying those 20- and 30-year bonds they now embrace–they certainly are in a position to do so. They can, and should, buy stocks with the attitude and expectations of an investor entering into a long-term partnership.
Corporate managers who duck responsibility for pension management by making easy, conventional or faddish decisions are making an expensive mistake. Pension assets probably total about one-third of overall industrial net worth and, of course, bulk far larger in the case of many specific industrial corporations. Thus, poor management of those assets frequently equates to poor management of the largest single segment of the business. Soundly achieved higher returns will produce significantly greater earnings for the corporate sponsors and will also enhance the security and prospective payments available to pensioners.
Managers currently opting for lower equity ratios either have a highly negative opinion of future American business results or expect to be nimble enough to dance back into stocks at even lower levels. There may well be some period in the near future when financial markets are demoralized and much better buys are available in equities; that possibility exists at all times. But you can be sure that at such a time the future will seem neither predictable nor pleasant. Those now awaiting a “better time” for equity investing are highly likely to maintain that posture until well into the next bull market.
Editor’s Note: This editor’s note accompanied the original publication of this article:
Warren Buffett is a down-to-earth man of 48 who prefers to operate out of his native Omaha rather than in the canyons of Wall Street, but the pros regard him as possibly the most successful living money manager, a direct descendant of the legendary Ben Graham under whom he studied. Buffett made a fortune for himself and his clients in the Fifties and Sixties but threw in the towel in 1969 because he could no longer find bargains. Then in late 1974, when the Dow Jones industrials were below 600 and the air was thick with doom, he told Forbes: “I feel like an oversexed man in a harem. This is the time to start investing.” Within months, the greatest rally in history began, with the DJI running almost 450 points in a bit over a year. What does Buffett think now? In this article, he puts it bluntly: Now is the time to buy.
Monday, June 19, 2017
Church and Dwight (Ticker NYSE: CHD)
Church and Dwight (Ticker NYSE: CHD) - Today's closing price: $53.75; Price-to-earnings ratio: 29.37; dividend yield: 1.43%; maker of Arm and Hammer products.
O' No! Canada (Part 2)
Socialist Justin Trudeau is now the Prime Minister of Canada and running the Canadian Government. Services make up 68% of its economy. Canada is heavily depended on natural resources: petroleum / oil accounts for nearly a whopping 25% of its economy. The auto industry makes up for 10%. Interestingly enough, gold makes up 3% of its economy. When one mixes Socialists policies with falling oil and natural resource prices, and a sagging auto industry, that does not make for a good mix for an economy to prosper.
As I mentioned in a post several years ago, the Canadian economy was booming due to high oil prices and a recovering auto industry. The leader, Stephen Harper, was the Prime Minister from Alberta and very friendly towards businesses, especially the oil industry as his home province is a hotbed for the oil industry. Since then oil has fallen, the markets have reacted, and the people have voted for a new regime that has far opposite and leftist policies than that of Harper's party.
As I mentioned in a post several years ago, the Canadian economy was booming due to high oil prices and a recovering auto industry. The leader, Stephen Harper, was the Prime Minister from Alberta and very friendly towards businesses, especially the oil industry as his home province is a hotbed for the oil industry. Since then oil has fallen, the markets have reacted, and the people have voted for a new regime that has far opposite and leftist policies than that of Harper's party.
Friday, June 16, 2017
O' No! Canada (Part 1)
Since my last visit to Canada, I noticed that things weren't going as well economically as I thought. I was a bit disappointed because I have relatives and friends in almost every province in the country and my expectations were a little high. But then I learned that Canada is dependent on natural resources such as oil and timber. So what has happened in past couple of years? Oil has collapsed, the Conservative party was ousted and now the Socialists are running the show, not a good mix for an economy to prosper. However, I got a sense that people are alright with it. After all, a lot of Canada's industries are nationalized; pensions, health care, education, timber to name a few. In my next article, I will go more into depth about Canada's economy and government.
Friday, June 9, 2017
Wednesday, June 7, 2017
Tuesday, June 6, 2017
Saturday, April 4, 2015
Excellent interview with the late Walter Schloss, a value investor. Schloss was a mentor to Warren Buffett and disciple to Benjamin Graham, the father of Security Analysis. The following link to the video is an excellent synopsis of Schloss' investing concepts. Some of things he mentions that he looks for in this video are buying companies that are out of favor, at low book value and with low debt.
http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/2008/Schloss_2008.htm
Monday, March 30, 2015
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Friday, June 11, 2010
Some High-Yield Dividend Stocks
Company Symbol Yield % Price
Cheniere Energy Partners, LP CQP 12.01% 17.37
TAT Technologies Ltd. TATT 12.01% 7.39
Triangle Capital Corporation TCAP 12.15% 15.15
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Income ETB 12.64% 15.11
Hugoton Royalty Trust HGT 12.76% 19.71
Magyar Telekom Plc. (ADR) MTA 12.79% 15.16
ING International High Dividend Equity IID 12.95% 12
Formula Systems (1985) Ltd. (ADR) FORTY 13.07% 12.62
Frontier Communications Corp FTR 13.11% 7.95
Blackrock Kelso Capital Corp. BKCC 13.17% 10.6
Kohlberg Capital Corp. KCAP 13.31% 5.67
Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (ADR) GOL 13.53% 12.78
ING Global Equity Divid.&Premium Opp-ETF IGD 13.65% 11.84
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. NYMT 13.74% 7.69
Whiting USA Trust I WHX 14.3% 22.05
MFA Mortgage Investments MFA 14.44% 7.15
source: dividendstocksonline com (5/14/10)
Cheniere Energy Partners, LP CQP 12.01% 17.37
TAT Technologies Ltd. TATT 12.01% 7.39
Triangle Capital Corporation TCAP 12.15% 15.15
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Income ETB 12.64% 15.11
Hugoton Royalty Trust HGT 12.76% 19.71
Magyar Telekom Plc. (ADR) MTA 12.79% 15.16
ING International High Dividend Equity IID 12.95% 12
Formula Systems (1985) Ltd. (ADR) FORTY 13.07% 12.62
Frontier Communications Corp FTR 13.11% 7.95
Blackrock Kelso Capital Corp. BKCC 13.17% 10.6
Kohlberg Capital Corp. KCAP 13.31% 5.67
Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (ADR) GOL 13.53% 12.78
ING Global Equity Divid.&Premium Opp-ETF IGD 13.65% 11.84
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. NYMT 13.74% 7.69
Whiting USA Trust I WHX 14.3% 22.05
MFA Mortgage Investments MFA 14.44% 7.15
source: dividendstocksonline com (5/14/10)
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Markets to Rally?!? Dr. Doom Calls a Short-term Bottom of 1,045 on the S&P 500
The S&P 500 hit Dr. Doom's (Marc Faber) 1,045 bottom intraday today. Markets rallied 1% soon after. "We're oversold near-term, not from a longer term perspective" says Faber.
(Bloomberg TV, 5/25/10)
(Bloomberg TV, 5/25/10)
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Happy Monday! Far East Stock Markets Are Getting Crushed
The Far East markets are getting crushed today, down as much as 3%. No doubt the markets are still spooked from the collapse of the Euro. By the way, the Euro in my opinion is doomed (see the theEconomicAnalyst.blogspot.com blog for more on that). Anyhow, this should make for an interesting week. I will probably be doing some light trimming of the portfolio, probably selling one of my four REITs that I hold.
I am not really reacting to the mania of the markets just yet. I just like to buy stocks low and ideally hold forever, only selling when I see a screaming bargain in another stock or when a stock is overbought. I would prefer that the Dow return to the 6,000 level so I can make a killing by taking long positions in some absolute bargains. Why? Because I do not short, nor employ leverage, I just do what I am comfortable with doing and like Wayne Gretzky says 'skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.' In my case I am having the stock prices come to me rather than chasing them around like I would with a hot gal!
If I see another 10% pull back, I may do some stock reallocation. Just nothing really interests me at the moment as I am fully invested.
I am not really reacting to the mania of the markets just yet. I just like to buy stocks low and ideally hold forever, only selling when I see a screaming bargain in another stock or when a stock is overbought. I would prefer that the Dow return to the 6,000 level so I can make a killing by taking long positions in some absolute bargains. Why? Because I do not short, nor employ leverage, I just do what I am comfortable with doing and like Wayne Gretzky says 'skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.' In my case I am having the stock prices come to me rather than chasing them around like I would with a hot gal!
If I see another 10% pull back, I may do some stock reallocation. Just nothing really interests me at the moment as I am fully invested.
Excellent video of Walter Schloss answering some questions from students at The Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing regarding some of his criteria for selecting stocks. Mr. Schloss helped to mentor Warren Buffett when the both of them worked for Mr. Graham, the father of Security Analysis.
http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/Schloss.htm
http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/Schloss.htm
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Warren Buffett Partnership Letters
After all of these years, someone out in cyberworld has kept and posted several of Warren Buffett's partnership letters from 1959 to 1969. Some of these letters go into the business deals that the partnership has made investments in, others describe how Mr. Buffett values a company for investment purposes such as balance sheet analysis; really fascinating stuff if you are trying to get into the mindset of Mr. Buffett from his pre-Berkshire Hathaway days.
The link to Warren Buffett's partnership letters:
http://www.pragcap.com/warren-buffett-partnership-letters/
The link to Warren Buffett's partnership letters:
http://www.pragcap.com/warren-buffett-partnership-letters/
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Warren Buffett's thoughts during a bear market
"Under the 1974 headline, "Look At All Those Beautiful, Scantily Clad Girls Out There!," this profile in Forbes magazine captures Warren Buffett's personality and chronicles the singular path he cut through the investment world. Though the piece is 34 years old, it sheds light on the man behind Berkshire Hathaway as the company's shareholders meet this weekend in Omaha, Neb.
Robert Lenzner and Evelyn Rusli will be reporting from Omaha all weekend. You can find the latest on the shareholders' meeting here.
How do you contemplate the current stock market, we asked Warren Buffett, the sage of Omaha, Neb.
"Like an oversexed guy in a harem," he shot back. "This is the time to start investing."
The Dow was below 600 when he said that. Before we could get Buffett's words in print, it was up almost 15% in one of the fastest rallies ever.
We called him back and asked if he found the market as sexy at 660 as he did at 580. "I don't know what the averages are going to do next," he replied, "but there are still plenty of bargains around." He remarked that the situation reminded him of the early '50s.
Warren Buffett doesn't talk much, but when he does it's well worth listening to. His sense of timing has been remarkable. Five years ago, late in 1969, when he was 39, he called it quits on the market. He liquidated his money management pool, Buffett Partnership, Ltd., and gave his clients their money back. Before that, in good years and bad, he had been beating the averages, making the partnership grow at a compounded annual rate of 30% before fees between 1957 and 1969. (That works out to a $10,000 investment growing to $300,000 and change.)
He quit essentially because he found the game no longer worth playing. Multiples on good stocks were sky-high, the go-go boys were "performing" and the list was so picked over that the kind of solid bargains that Buffett likes were not to be had. He told his clients that they might do better in tax-exempt bonds than in playing the market. "When I got started," he says, "the bargains were flowing like the Johnstown flood; by 1969 it was like a leaky toilet in Altoona." Pretty cagey, this Buffett. When all the sharp MBAs were crowding into the investment business, Buffett was quietly walking away.
Buffett settled back to manage the business interests he had acquired, including Diversified Retailing, a chain of women's apparel stores; Blue Chip Stamps, a western states trading stamp operation; and Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified banking and insurance company that owned, among other things, a weekly newspaper, The Omaha Sun. The businesses did well. Under Buffett's management, the Sun won a Pulitzer prize for its exposé of how Boys Town, despite pleas of poverty, had been turned into a "moneymaking machine."
Swing, You Bum!
Buffett is like the legendary guy who sold his stocks in 1928 and went fishing until 1933. That guy probably didn't exist. The stock market is habit-forming: You can always persuade yourself that there are bargains around. Even in 1929. Or in 1970. But Buffett did kick the habit. He did "go fishing" from 1969 to 1974. If he had stuck around, he concedes, he would have had mediocre results.
"I call investing the greatest business in the world," he says, "because you never have to swing." You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it."
But pity the pros at the investment institutions. They're the victims of impossible "performance" measurements. Says Buffett, continuing his baseball imagery, "It's like Babe Ruth at bat with 50,000 fans and the club owner yelling, 'Swing, you bum!' and some guy is trying to pitch him an intentional walk. They know if they don't take a swing at the next pitch, the guy will say, 'Turn in your uniform.'" Buffett claims he set up his partnership to avoid these pressures.
Stay dispassionate and be patient is Buffett's message. "You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with Pepsi, you should be OK." First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression.
Fine, we said, if you're so bullish, what are you buying? His answer: "I don't want to tout my own stocks."
Any general suggestions, we asked?
Just common sense ones. Buy stocks that sell at ridiculously low prices. Low by what standards? By the conventional ones of net worth, book value, the value of the business as a going concern. Above all, stick with what you know; don't get too fancy. "Draw a circle around the businesses you understand and then eliminate those that fail to qualify on the basis of value, good management and limited exposure to hard times." No high technology. No multicompanies. "I don't understand them," says Buffett. "Buy into a company because you want to own it, not because you want the stock to go up."
"A water company is pretty simple," he says, adding that Blue Chip Stamps has a 5% interest in the San Jose Water Works. "So is a newspaper. Or a major retailer." He'll even buy a Street favorite if he isn't paying a big premium for things that haven't happened yet. He mentions Polaroid. "At some price, you don't pay anything for the future, and you even discount the present. Then, if Dr. Land has some surprises up his sleeve, you get them for nothing."
Have faith in your own judgment or your adviser's, Buffett advises. Don't be swayed by every opinion you hear and every suggestion you read. Buffett recalls a favorite saying of Professor Benjamin Graham, the father of modern security analysis and Buffett's teacher at Columbia Business School: "You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you." Another way of saying that wisdom, truth, lies elsewhere than in the moment's moods.
All Alone?
What good, though, is a bargain if the market never recognizes it as a bargain? What if the stock market never comes back? Buffett replies: "When I worked for Graham-Newman, I asked Ben Graham, who then was my boss, about that. He just shrugged and replied that the market always eventually does. He was right--in the short run, it's a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine. Today on Wall Street they say, 'Yes, it's cheap, but it's not going to go up.' That's silly. People have been successful investors because they've stuck with successful companies. Sooner or later the market mirrors the business." Such classic advice is likely to remain sound in the future when they write musical comedies about the go-go boys.
We reminded Buffett of the old play on the Kipling lines: "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs … maybe they know something you don't."
Buffett responded that, yes, he was well aware that the world is in a mess. "What the DeBeers did with diamonds, the Arabs are doing with oil; the trouble is we need oil more than diamonds." And there is the population explosion, resource scarcity, nuclear proliferation. But, he went on, you can't invest in the anticipation of calamity; gold coins and art collections can't protect you against Doomsday. If the world really is burning up, "you might as well be like Nero and say, 'It's only burning on the south side.'"
"Look, I can't construct a disaster-proof portfolio. But if you're only worried about corporate profits, panic or depression, these things don't bother me at these prices."
Buffett's final word: "Now is the time to invest and get rich.""
from Forbes
Robert Lenzner and Evelyn Rusli will be reporting from Omaha all weekend. You can find the latest on the shareholders' meeting here.
How do you contemplate the current stock market, we asked Warren Buffett, the sage of Omaha, Neb.
"Like an oversexed guy in a harem," he shot back. "This is the time to start investing."
The Dow was below 600 when he said that. Before we could get Buffett's words in print, it was up almost 15% in one of the fastest rallies ever.
We called him back and asked if he found the market as sexy at 660 as he did at 580. "I don't know what the averages are going to do next," he replied, "but there are still plenty of bargains around." He remarked that the situation reminded him of the early '50s.
Warren Buffett doesn't talk much, but when he does it's well worth listening to. His sense of timing has been remarkable. Five years ago, late in 1969, when he was 39, he called it quits on the market. He liquidated his money management pool, Buffett Partnership, Ltd., and gave his clients their money back. Before that, in good years and bad, he had been beating the averages, making the partnership grow at a compounded annual rate of 30% before fees between 1957 and 1969. (That works out to a $10,000 investment growing to $300,000 and change.)
He quit essentially because he found the game no longer worth playing. Multiples on good stocks were sky-high, the go-go boys were "performing" and the list was so picked over that the kind of solid bargains that Buffett likes were not to be had. He told his clients that they might do better in tax-exempt bonds than in playing the market. "When I got started," he says, "the bargains were flowing like the Johnstown flood; by 1969 it was like a leaky toilet in Altoona." Pretty cagey, this Buffett. When all the sharp MBAs were crowding into the investment business, Buffett was quietly walking away.
Buffett settled back to manage the business interests he had acquired, including Diversified Retailing, a chain of women's apparel stores; Blue Chip Stamps, a western states trading stamp operation; and Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified banking and insurance company that owned, among other things, a weekly newspaper, The Omaha Sun. The businesses did well. Under Buffett's management, the Sun won a Pulitzer prize for its exposé of how Boys Town, despite pleas of poverty, had been turned into a "moneymaking machine."
Swing, You Bum!
Buffett is like the legendary guy who sold his stocks in 1928 and went fishing until 1933. That guy probably didn't exist. The stock market is habit-forming: You can always persuade yourself that there are bargains around. Even in 1929. Or in 1970. But Buffett did kick the habit. He did "go fishing" from 1969 to 1974. If he had stuck around, he concedes, he would have had mediocre results.
"I call investing the greatest business in the world," he says, "because you never have to swing." You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it."
But pity the pros at the investment institutions. They're the victims of impossible "performance" measurements. Says Buffett, continuing his baseball imagery, "It's like Babe Ruth at bat with 50,000 fans and the club owner yelling, 'Swing, you bum!' and some guy is trying to pitch him an intentional walk. They know if they don't take a swing at the next pitch, the guy will say, 'Turn in your uniform.'" Buffett claims he set up his partnership to avoid these pressures.
Stay dispassionate and be patient is Buffett's message. "You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with Pepsi, you should be OK." First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression.
Fine, we said, if you're so bullish, what are you buying? His answer: "I don't want to tout my own stocks."
Any general suggestions, we asked?
Just common sense ones. Buy stocks that sell at ridiculously low prices. Low by what standards? By the conventional ones of net worth, book value, the value of the business as a going concern. Above all, stick with what you know; don't get too fancy. "Draw a circle around the businesses you understand and then eliminate those that fail to qualify on the basis of value, good management and limited exposure to hard times." No high technology. No multicompanies. "I don't understand them," says Buffett. "Buy into a company because you want to own it, not because you want the stock to go up."
"A water company is pretty simple," he says, adding that Blue Chip Stamps has a 5% interest in the San Jose Water Works. "So is a newspaper. Or a major retailer." He'll even buy a Street favorite if he isn't paying a big premium for things that haven't happened yet. He mentions Polaroid. "At some price, you don't pay anything for the future, and you even discount the present. Then, if Dr. Land has some surprises up his sleeve, you get them for nothing."
Have faith in your own judgment or your adviser's, Buffett advises. Don't be swayed by every opinion you hear and every suggestion you read. Buffett recalls a favorite saying of Professor Benjamin Graham, the father of modern security analysis and Buffett's teacher at Columbia Business School: "You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you." Another way of saying that wisdom, truth, lies elsewhere than in the moment's moods.
All Alone?
What good, though, is a bargain if the market never recognizes it as a bargain? What if the stock market never comes back? Buffett replies: "When I worked for Graham-Newman, I asked Ben Graham, who then was my boss, about that. He just shrugged and replied that the market always eventually does. He was right--in the short run, it's a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine. Today on Wall Street they say, 'Yes, it's cheap, but it's not going to go up.' That's silly. People have been successful investors because they've stuck with successful companies. Sooner or later the market mirrors the business." Such classic advice is likely to remain sound in the future when they write musical comedies about the go-go boys.
We reminded Buffett of the old play on the Kipling lines: "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs … maybe they know something you don't."
Buffett responded that, yes, he was well aware that the world is in a mess. "What the DeBeers did with diamonds, the Arabs are doing with oil; the trouble is we need oil more than diamonds." And there is the population explosion, resource scarcity, nuclear proliferation. But, he went on, you can't invest in the anticipation of calamity; gold coins and art collections can't protect you against Doomsday. If the world really is burning up, "you might as well be like Nero and say, 'It's only burning on the south side.'"
"Look, I can't construct a disaster-proof portfolio. But if you're only worried about corporate profits, panic or depression, these things don't bother me at these prices."
Buffett's final word: "Now is the time to invest and get rich.""
from Forbes
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Bearish on Bonds, Bullish on Stocks?
Long-term bonds Government bonds average 2.1% (5-year t-bond) to 4.2% (30-year t-bond), the Dow Jones earnings yield is near 7% (6.58% with the Dow at 10,132), not including dividends. This puts the Price/Earnings ratio of the Dow at 15.2.
investorsfriend.com
investorsfriend.com
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Stock Market Year-end Predictions for 2010
-All major U.S. indices will be higher than today (Dow is at 10,124) but no more than 20% higher.
- Homebuilders, regional banks, mortgage insurers will be winners.
* Please read legal disclaimer for this blog.
- Homebuilders, regional banks, mortgage insurers will be winners.
* Please read legal disclaimer for this blog.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)